Half-Mack Stochastic Reserving

Dr. Frank Cuypers and Simone Dalessi from PRS suggest in this paper to use a stochastic reserving method, which uses the information gained from statistical reserving methods (such as the Mack Chain Ladder procedure), to model and fit the loss development factors with loss development functions. These loss development functions straightforwardly yield the reserves and include an implicit tail factor.

The choice of the proper type of loss development function allows for actuarial or underwriting judgment based on appropriate experience with the analyzed line of business and jurisdiction. Moreover, the confidence intervals of the loss development factors determine the probability distribution of the reserves, which can be used e.g. for the purpose of modeling risk, capital and solvency.

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